LETTER TO THE EDITOR
Hurricane activity varies all the time
Wednesday, June 8, 2005
Dear Sir,
I just now returned from Mexico City to my city of residence, Ottawa,
Canada after spending three days at an international conference sponsored by
the United Nations on developing early warning systems for cyclone generated
storm surges and tsunamis generated by earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.
At this conference I represented the Royal Society of Canada, which is
among the foremost scientific societies in the world. I noted the article on
your web site about the possible increase in hurricanes due to human
anthropogenic activities. I would like to state a few observational facts,
which can be easily verified and here I am not using any computer model
projections. Undoubtedly the most impacted region on the globe by tropical
storms is South Asia in terms of socio-economic perspective.
In the 20th century the total number of cyclones here are about half of
those in the 19th century. Even in the Atlantic and Caribbean, the storm
activity is nothing unusual. There were times earlier when there were more
hurricanes than now. The hurricane activity is not static, it varies all the
time, but what is happening now is with in the normal range of variation. If
indeed human anthropogenic activities are increasing the frequency and
intensity of hurricanes, it is not at all obvious in the observational records
(the only place where it is obvious are unrealistic computer model
simulations).
If the hypothesis in your article is correct, then each year there should
be more hurricanes than in the previous year, that is a monotonic increase,
which certainly is not happening. I examined some twenty different atmospheric
and oceanographic parameters associated with hurricanes on the globe using all
available historical data I could find up to December 31st 2004.
Not a single record was set after October 1979. In other words, as far as
global hurricane activity is concerned, there has been no record set in the
past 25 years. I ask you sir, if indeed hurricane activity is increasing
globally due to human anthropogenic activity, please show me the observational
data to support it.
Please do not quote my computer model results, I have been involved with
them for the past 45 years, and I can show you whatever you want, if you want
I can produce global warming, on the other hand, if you want an ice age, I can
produce that too, with a very slight tweaking of one single parameter (low
cloud amount) in the model.
What are my credentials to make these statements? I have a PH.D. in
Meteorology and Oceanography from the University of Chicago, USA. I worked as
a senior research scientist with the Canadian Oceanographic Service for 27
years and I did the official climate change review for the service for the
Pacific and Arctic coasts of Canada. I was the director of Australia’s
National Tidal Facility for three years. Now I am an Adjunct Professor in the
University of Ottawa, Canada. I am also the editor of the international
scientific journal Natural Hazards published by Springer in Germany and
Netherlands.
In the more than 1,800 scientific manuscripts that passed through the
editorial desk in the past and until now, not a single manuscript based upon
actual observations ever claimed that human anthropogenic activities have
anything to do with the ever increasing economic impact of natural hazards
such as hurricanes. No one doubts that the economic impact is increasing all
the time, not because the hurricane frequency or intensity is increasing, but
because the population is increasing and the coastal infrastructure is
increasing. For example, the coastal infrastructure worldwide has increased
some 13.5 fold between the 19th and 20th centuries.
Thank you very much.
Dr. Tad Murty
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