Hurricane Emily’s threat to the Cayman Islands seriously considered

Donovan Ebanks,
Chairman, National Hurricane
Committee.

A satellite image of Hurricane Emily

Monday,  July 18, 2005

According to the National Hurricane Center in Miami, at 7:00 pm on Friday Hurricane Emily had regained major hurricane status with winds of 115 mph and was located about 305 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, moving west-northwest near 18mph.

With Hurricane Emily continuing its projected path, Cayman’s National Hurricane Committee had earlier declared a Hurricane Warning at 4:00 pm Friday. 

On its projected path, the closest point of approach to the Cayman Islands was expected to be, from Emily’s centre, 79 miles south-southwest of Grand Cayman, at 12:30 am on Sunday. At this point, winds were forecast to be around 55 mph, with higher gusts. This is equivalent to minimal tropical storm conditions. The good news is that on its projected path Emily was not expected to pose a significant threat to the Sister Islands of Cayman Brac and Little Cayman.

The Meteorological Service forecast that storm surges would not be a major feature but that there would be strong wave action and rainfall should be anticipated.

The high-pressure ridge which has been holding the storm to the south continued to maintain its effect, thus maintaining the forecast track to the south of the Cayman Islands.

The system had previously been downgraded at 4 pm Friday to a Category 2 with winds at 105mph. 

“Although this may seem like very good news at the moment, we have to continue to closely monitor all aspects of this system. The water temperature at Emily’s current location is favourable for continued weakening but once it goes into the warmer waters of our area, anything could happen,” said Chief Meteorologist Mr. Fred Sambula.

On its current projected track and intensity, tropical storm force winds of about 39mph were expected as early as Saturday evening at around 8:30pm in Grand Cayman, reaching its forecast peak at midnight on Saturday with winds up to 55mph and subsiding below 39mph early Sunday morning (around 5:00 am) as the system moves past our area. 

Rainfall is expected to reach in excess of three inches between 7:00 pm Saturday and 7:00 pm Sunday night. Otherwise, the latter half of Sunday was expected to be a fair day, if the current forecast holds.

Speaking with Cayman Net News at 6:30 pm on Friday 15 July, Chairman of the National Hurricane Committee (NHC), Mr Donovan Ebanks said, “The NHC just met and we looked at the 4:00 pm hurricane advisory from the Hurricane Centre in Miami. While the system’s intensity has been downgraded from 135 miles per hour winds, it still has the potential to cause serious damage. We can’t assume the system is dissipating because of the downgrade. The system continues to move at a good clip and therefore any change in direction as it moves closer could cause considerable damage.”

On Friday, restrictions were placed on inbound travel to the Cayman Islands, allowing only Caymanians, status holders, residents of the country, or work permit holders to board incoming flights.

A travel warning was also issued by the US State Department urging US citizens to carefully consider the risk of travel to the Cayman Islands due to the threat posed by Hurricane Emily.

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