News Analysis
The New Impending War
The United States plans a massive invasion of Iraq
By RICHARD SALE,
UPI Terrorism Correspondent
President George W. Bush and his advisersare reviewing plans for a massive, full-scale military conquestof Iraq, composed by Central Command under Gen. Tommy Franks,that would require five ground force divisions numbering 200,000,two Marine Corps divisions, and 15 wings of U.S. fighters andbombers, key administration officials told United Press International.
These officials, speaking on condition ofanonymity, said Britain is expected to provide as many as 25,000troops for a total on-the-ground force of 250,000 men.
Franks briefed the Pentagon and the WhiteHouse on major outlines of his plan in May. Though Bush has declinedto provide any details in recent weeks, Monday, for the firsttime, he acknowledged being thoroughly involved in the planning.
"I'm involved in the military planning,diplomatic planning, financial planning ... reviewing all thetools at my disposal," the president said.
Bush stressed, as he has in the past, itis his firm intention to get rid of Iraqi strongman Saddam Hussein.
The president said he is a "patientperson ... but I do firmly believe that the world will be saferand more peaceful if there's a regime change in that government."
The president and other officials have repeatedlysaid that military action is only one of the options they arelooking at to impose regime change in Iraq.
According to officials who spoke to UPI,three dates are being discussed as possible times to launch theattack.
The first would be before the November elections-- an option now considered the least likely, officials said.
Another would be just after the electionsor January/February of next year, sources said.
Franks believes that the optimum date foran attack would be just after the November elections, one U.S.government source said, adding that the date would depend on logisticalreadiness.
Good weather that would allow for maximumuse of U.S. air power is also a chief consideration, Pentagonofficials said.
According to U.S. intelligence sources,Kuwait would be the leading staging base of the huge operation.Sources said there are already advance elements of five Americandivisions in Kuwait searching for sites to quarter U.S. troopsand set up advanced communications and logistics networks.
Other preparatory deployment moves are takingplace all over the map. For example, the 101st Airborne Division,which will be used against Iraq, is being quietly withdrawn fromAfghanistan, while the 82nd Airborne, which would not be used,is being assigned to Kabul, according to Pentagon intelligenceofficials.
Turning day-to-day command of Afghanistanoperations over to the 18th Airborne Corps, under Lt. Gen. DanielMcNeill, left Franks and the Central Command free to focus onplanning the attack on Iraq, U.S. government officials said.
Sources familiar with the plans told UPIthat the U.S. Army already has about a division's worth of armorand other heavy equipment pre-positioned in the Persian Gulf region,including brigade-sized depots in Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, and onships in the Indian Ocean.
U.S. Air Force planes are already basedin Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. In the event of theattack, more planes would operate from Turkey, which is expectedto join any U.S. effort against Iraq.
Former senior Army intelligence officialPat Lang, said the United States would use U.S. facilities inSaudi Arabia, probably with a minimum of notice.
"The Saudi government would prefernot to know," Lang said.
Pentagon casualty estimates range as highas 2,000 deaths, but Lang pointed out that 5,000 deaths were predictedfor Operation Desert Storm, which cost only 28 American lives.
The invasion of Iraq would occur from threedirections: the north, south, and west using land- and sea-basedforces. One U.S. analyst called it a "major amphibious effort"and "vertical envelopment" of Airborne and Marine Corpsunits, adding, "There are a dozen ways to do it."
The leading U.S. ground commander wouldbe Lt. Gen. David McKiernan, of U.S Army Forces Central Command-- Arcent -- based at Ft. McPherson, Ga. McKiernan is formerlydeputy chief of staff of military planning for the U.S. Army.
The attack would be a preemptive strike,a source familiar with the plans said. He added that the ArmedForces Staff College had done studies three years ago on U.S.preemptive strike capabilities, which are excellent. "Theproblem is that they cost a lot of political capital," hesaid.
Bush announced several weeks ago that theU.S. reserves the right to strike first under certain circumstances,essentially changing long-standing U.S. Cold War policy.
The first stage of Franks' plan would entailusing electronic and other advanced military technologies "toget into Saddam's decision process" and disrupt his commandand control system -- Hussein's ability to talk to his military,secret police, and security forces, including his land telephonelines, according to sources familiar with the plan.
The U.S. air strikes would use round-the-clockstrikes on Hussein's palaces and his major bases of support suchas the Republican Guard, the Special Republican Guard, the SaddamFedayeen and the Baath Party, in the hope of sparking a coup.
According to Ken Pollack, deputy directorof national security studies at the Council on Foreign Relations,a 1998 attack called Operation Desert Fox which attacked suchtargets provoked Hussein to overreact and order arrests and assassinationsthat resulted in Shi'a uprisings.
Anthony Cordesman, national security expertat the Center for Strategic and International Studies, noted thatDesert Fox "was more of a retaliatory strike than an attemptto topple Saddam," but Pentagon officials said the plannedattack would go for many of the same targets.
Cordesman said that the Pentagon expects"committed resistance" from Iraqi forces, at least atfirst.
But to mount such a huge invasion involvessolving certain problems.
One is manpower. According to Eliot Cohen,professor of strategic studies at the Paul H. Nitze School ofAdvanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University, overthe decade the United States has developed a military system "verydependent on reservists."
This includes areas of intelligence, logistics,communications, and even combat support and service, he said.
After Sept. 11, Bush mobilized over 80,000reservists and National Guardsmen to support the war in Afghanistan,with tours of duty lasting up to a year. Homeland security dutiesoccupied the bulk of Guard troops who were used to protect U.S.forces and bases, especially those overseas. The wear and tearhas reduced the readiness levels of some units, Pentagon expertssaid.
According to these sources, a key indicatorof the administration's readiness to attack Iraq will be extendingthe tours of duty for the 80,000 already in service and mobilizingmore reservists.
One U.S. military analyst said that a call-upof more reservists was "unavoidable" and would be done"quickly."
Larry Wortzel, military expert at the HeritageFoundation said, "Bush will not be able to run a major operationwithout extending tours of duty and ordering a larger call-up."
Nearly a quarter of a million National Guardtroops and reservists were activated for Operation Desert Shield/DesertStorm in 1991, he said.
Next, a full-scale invasion would mean thetransfer of "heavy" Army and Marine Corps divisions-- those with tanks and artillery -- from bases in Germany, Georgia,North Carolina, Texas, California, and other locations. Such transfers"would telegraph what was coming, and Saddam isn't just goingto sit there," a Pentagon official said.
Some have questioned if the United Stateshas the necessary military resources, given the war in Afghanistan.
But Mike O'Hanlon, military expert at theBrookings Institution, quoted the Bush administration as claimingthat the United States still retains the capability to wage oneall-out war and a second major operation, half as big, with bothrequiring as many as 750,000 troops in combat.
According to Pentagon figures, operationsin Afghanistan and the Persian Gulf currently total about 60,000Americans personnel while ongoing commitments in the Balkans involveanother 10,000. Another 10,000 are involved with small missionsin Georgia, the Philippines, and Yemen.
The United States also keeps some 37,000troops in South Korea.
But O'Hanlon said those numbers left theUnited States with "a total of 10 divisions immediately available."
Because of the declining pace of air operationsin Afghanistan, the rate of sorties has fallen to 50 per day,leaving plenty of assets free to topple Hussein, including unmannedaerial vehicles, aerial tankers and transports, O'Hanlon said.
"We have plenty of tactical intelligenceassets in the inventory," including U-2s, a traditional,single-seat aircraft, UAVs, or unmanned surveillance aircraft,and RC-35s, a large, tanker-sized aircraft, said O'Hanlon.
In terms of critical over-flight and basingrights, Kuwait would be key. One former U.S. senior CIA officialwho recently talked with Kuwaiti officials reported they had expressedimpatience with the fact that the Israeli-Palestinian conflicthad complicated U.S. plans to get rid of Hussein.
"They want him out," the formeranalyst said. "They wanted to know why Kuwait was being heldhostage to the Palestinian question."
Vice President Dick Cheney's 11-nation tourlast March to garner support for an attack produced no publicbacking for the plan, but administration officials claimed thatthe United States will be getting plenty of crucial support privatelyfrom Arab countries who will publicly disown it.
One continuing worry is the U.S. Air Force,the most heavily stressed of all the U.S. armed services. Notonly has it been playing a major part in Operation Enduring Freedom,it had been conducting reconnaissance flights over the Balkans,the Middle East, and Korea, as well as continuing Operation Northernand Southern Watch flights for the last 11 years over Iraq.
But Wortzel pointed out that the war inAfghanistan has not yet drawn on U.S. Army aviation "whichate up the Iraqis big time" in Desert Storm.