CurrentAffairs
Carter, Castroand Bush smile
By Ian Campbell,
UPI Chief Economics Correspondent
U.S. President, GeorgeBush, Cuban President, Former U.S. President,
QUERETARO, Mexico, (UPI) --It is a relief at a time of international strife to have somegood news to report.
The visit by former U.S. President JimmyCarter to Cuba has been a huge success, leaving him, Cuban PresidentFidel Castro and U.S. President George W. Bush all happy.
Carter toured around, beamed his broad smile,applauded some of Cuba's achievements in education and healthcare and made a critical speech to which all Cubans could listen.
"Cuba has adopted a socialist governmentwhere one political party dominates, and people are not permittedto organize any opposition movements. Your Constitution recognizesfreedom of speech and association, but other laws deny these freedomsto those who disagree with the government," Carter said.
And so Carter made it plain: Cuba is notfree. Moreover, though he promised to refrain from interferingin Cuba's internal affairs he put pressure on the government bymentioning Cubans' constitutional right to request a referendumwith a petition signed by 10,000 citizens.
"I am informed that such an effort,called the Varela Project, has gathered sufficient signaturesand has presented such a petition to the National Assembly,"Carter said. So now this petition, propelled by Cuba's courageousdissidents, will prove a test for Castro. But it's the sort oftest he's excelled in for years.
It is not news to Cubans that they are runby one political party and one man. That has been the case formore than 40 years, even if it is normally on U.S. television,rather than Cuban television, that the fact has been broadcast.Are Cubans happy with it? Some are; many are not. Cuba's dissidentsare few because few people volunteer for systematic harassmentor a prison cell.
Does Carter himself expect Cuba to changeas a result of his visit? No. His comment to reporters on leavingthe island was this: "He (Castro) wants to retain completecontrol over the system and not take any chance that dissidentor disagreeing groups could gain enough support to endanger hispower."
Carter, then, met the dictator but was notfooled by his legendary charisma. He realizes that Castro's obsessionis not Cubans' welfare but power.
So is Castro the fool here? Was it a mistakefor him to invite Carter?
On the contrary, he knew what he wantedand got it. He can deal with some critical comments. He can dealwith dissidents. What he cannot deal with -- and, let us be plain,should not have to deal with; it would represent a huge mistakeby the U.S. government -- is U.S. Marines landing in Cuba or someother sort of military attack on the island.
Castro took seriously the intelligence hewas receiving that after the Sept. 11 attacks on the United States,Cuba was now seen as a potential source of terrorist attack. Hewanted to assure the United States that Cuba does not have biologicalweapons and has no plans to attack. A former U.S. president broadcasthis message for him. What could be better?
And what of Bush? The White House gave everyindication that it did not like the idea of Carter's trip. Butthe outcome suits it very well. Carter has confirmed that Castrois unwilling to make "basic policy changes."
Bush therefore spelled out Sunday and Mondaythat his Cuba policy is unchanged unless Castro makes basic changes.
And where did he spell it out? He flew toMiami, with its big population of anti-Castro Cuban exiles, onMonday, Cuba's Independence Day, to say "If Cuba's governmenttakes all the necessary steps to ensure that the 2003 electionsare certifiably free and fair, and if Cuba also begins to adoptmeaningful market-based reforms, then and only then I will workwith the United States Congress to ease the ban on trade and travelbetween our two countries."
How well that should serve Bush's brotherJeb when he runs for re-election as Florida's governor in November.
So Bush hangs tough, as Americans say, onCastro. But in fact he could be much tougher. But it would involvethought, which may not be Bush's strong suit, and a brave policychange. He could allow American companies to invest in Cuba, dropthe trade embargo that Castro misleadingly calls -- as Carterpointed out -- the "blockade" and thereby give Castro,for the first time in 40 years, a real problem to think about:how to deal with a no longer hostile United States.
Thinking, it should be said, is a strongercard of Castro's than of Bush, but the problems presented to himwould be awkward. U.S. investment and American visitors, if Cubalet them in, would bring huge pressures for change. How do youkeep central planning in operation when the capitalists are invading?How do you keep all Cubans monitored by the Committees for theDefense of the Revolution if society is suddenly less static?How do you justify repression on the grounds that you are fightingan implacable enemy when the enemy is pouring through the gatesarmed with smiles and dollars?
But Bush chooses not to give Castro theseproblems, for two reasons. The first is that there is the dangerthat Castro could deal with the U.S. influx and be strengthenedby it rather than weakened, though this is a possibility, which,to this writer, seems improbable. And the second reason, almostcertainly the more important one, is that in Miami, where Cubanexiles are a political force, any relaxation of the 40-year-oldU.S. trade embargo would be condemned as a betrayal. An electionis near at hand.
So there we have it, let's sum up the trip.On Cuba it will have little or no effect. There is not gong tobe any change. Castro is comfortable and happy in his currentjob and does not intend to retire.
Jimmy Carter has retired from politics,but it is an active retirement and he has just had a fine timein the international spotlight in a trip that was well intentionedand has done no harm and maybe a little good.
And Bush? He, like Castro, seems primarilyfocused on power. Those elections matter enough to him to raisefarm subsidies and steel tariffs to help win them. A little "toughon Castro" speech in Miami will help things along just fine.
The presidents are happy. It is wonderfulto have so much good news to report.
Did someone mention Cubans? Well, you can'tplease everyone.