United States consumer confidence rebounds in November
NEW YORK, (UPI) -- The Conference Board said last Tuesday that consumer confidence rebounded during November after a five-month slide, indicating a stronger holiday spending season than was anticipated only a month ago.
The private research group said that its consumer confidence index, which uses 1985 as a base of 100, rose 4.5 percentage points to 84.1 from a revised 79.6 in October.
The October figure was originally reported as 79.4 -- the lowest level since November 1993, when it stood at 71.9.
Most economists on Wall Street have expected confidence to rise to 86.5 during the month.
Consumer confidence hit a record high of 144.7 in May, 2001 and sank to its 1993 low in October this year.
Economists watch the index because high readings suggest that consumers are in a mood to spend, and such spending accounts for about two-thirds of economic output.
The board said the survey, which is based on a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households, showed its present situation index inched up to 77.6 from 77.2 while its expectations index rose to 88.4 from 81.1 a month earlier.
Lynn Franco, director of the board's Consumer Research Center, said: "The rebound in expectations suggests consumers do not expect economic conditions to become worse.
"This comeback, combined with yesterday's upbeat forecasts for Christmas spending, signals a brighter holiday spending season than was anticipated only a month ago," Franco said.
On Monday the board, in its annual survey of Christmas spending intentions, said American families intend to spend an average of $483 on gifts this Christmas, up from last year's $462.
"Despite widespread reports that worried consumers will sharply curtail their holiday spending, the board's annual survey projects a 5 percent increase in Christmas spending this year," Franco said.
"While job growth has clearly slowed, real incomes are still rising at a rate of about 3 percent.
Continued discounting by retailers, both online and in the stores, is likely to prop up Christmas spending," she said.
The latest report on confidence showed consumers' expectations improved over last month's readings.
Those anticipating an improvement in business conditions in the next six months rose slightly to 19.9 percent from 19.3 percent. Those expecting conditions to deteriorate fell to 11.4 percent from 14.3 percent.
The employment outlook also improved during November.
The percentage of consumers expecting fewer jobs over the next six months fell to 18.9 percent from 22.1 percent, while those anticipating more jobs held steady at 15.3 percent.
Income expectations were more optimistic: 19.0 percent of the consumers polled anticipate higher incomes, vs. 17.9 percent in October.
The board said the modest improvement in consumers' assessment of the present situation was due to a slight improvement in current business conditions, with labor market conditions still stagnant.
Consumers rating current business conditions as bad declined to 26.0 from 27.7 percent. Those holding the opposite view increased to 16.0 percent from 15.6 percent.
Consumers reporting jobs are hard to get rose to 27.5 percent from 27.3 percent last month. Those claiming jobs are plentiful slipped to 14.1 percent from 14.7 percent in October.