News Analysis
Pakistan President PervezMusharraf's perilous search
By Anwar Iqbal, UPISouth Asian Affairs Analyst
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan, (UPI) -- PresidentGen. Pervez Musharraf may be remembered in Pakistan as a rulerwho destroyed himself without any internal or external pressureto do so.
The general, who was the commander-in-chiefof former Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, came to powerby toppling an elected government. And yet he faced no resistance.Fed up with the corruption and inefficiency of their politicians,most Pakistanis welcomed the change.
PakistanPresident, Gen. Pervez Musharraf
For most of his three-year rule, there wasno serious demand for the restoration of democracy. Instead peoplewelcomed his initial efforts to fight corruption and improve governance.
But in his heart, the general always sawhimself as a usurper, a ruler lacking legitimacy. And was lookingfor an opportunity to legitimize his rule.
The terrorist attacks in the United Stateson Sept. 11, 2001, gave him that opportunity. Overnight, froman international pariah shun by all world leaders for topplingan elected government, he became a key Western ally.
Internally, his move to align himself withthe United States, dumping Pakistan's former Taliban allies, wasappreciated by most Pakistanis. Only a small religious minoritycame out in the streets, protesting the move.
A vendortakes his lunch while waiting for customers to sell badges ofonce Pakistan's political arch rivals and deposed prime MinistersNawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto at the venue of opposition meetingagainst the President General Pervez Musharraf's referendum inLahore.
Bubbling with confidence, the general decidedto do what he should not have: hold a referendum to gauge hispopularity. He forgot that people do not go out to vote when there'sonly one candidate. It is the competition that creates the impetusneeded to force a voter to go out, abandoning his or her favoritetelevision program or cricket match.
So the voters' turnout in the April referendumwas low, according to most Pakistani observers, less than onepercent. This exposed Musharraf's claim that the country's silentmajority was with him.
The silent majority may not like Musharrafbut it's not with the politicians either, as the results of Thursday'sparliamentary elections show. Less than 30 percent of the 72 millionvoters participated in an election, which was supposed to be agreat battle between democracy and military rule.
Musharraf could have continued to use people'sindifference to politics to his own benefit by continuing to presentit as a rejection of Pakistani politicians. But he made the blunderthat has ruined many before him: he started believing in his ownindispensability.
He was convinced that the silent majoritywas with him and he decided to put it to test in the referendum.It was a rude shock for the general when the silent majority ignoredhis plea for support and continued to do whatever daily choresit was busy with.
So the general moved on to make anotherblunder, rig the elections to prove his popularity. To do so,Musharraf used a method popular with Pakistani dictators, whenyou cannot win a game, change the laws.
Soon after announcing the elections, Musharrafwent on a binge of constitutional amendments -- 29 in less thana month -- all aimed at strengthening a party he had helped createby sowing differences within Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League (N)party. The new party was called PML (Q), after Qauid-i-Azam MohammedAli Jinnah, the founder of Pakistan, but is better known as theQuisling League or the King's party for supporting Musharraf.
Musharraf's tricks hurt the people becausethey did not expect him to indulge in such practices. Most Pakistanisbelieved him when he said he was different and wanted to end corruption,improve governance, put the country's ailing economy back on thetrack and then hand over power to the civilians. When they sawhim doing otherwise, they felt cheated. People could see thatmost of the amendments the general made were meant to prolonghis own stay in power and not for providing a stable governmentto the country, as the general claimed.
Comments by international observers furtherstrengthened people's doubts. At a news briefing in Islamabadon Saturday, 12 October observers from the European Union blamedMusharraf for "serious flaws" in the general election,and questioned his commitment to returning the country to democracy.
In a preliminary report, the EU observerssaid that the authorities in Pakistan had misused government resourcesto favor PML (Q), which supports Musharraf and the army.
The EU observers criticized Musharraf'smoves to limit the power of the new legislature and blamed himfor preventing two former prime ministers, Benazir Bhutto andNawaz Sharif, in participating in the elections.
The EU's conclusions were blunt. "ThePakistan authorities engaged in a course of action which resultedin serious flaws in the electoral process," said John Cushnahan,the EU's chief election observer. There were also "seriousdoubts" about whether or not Pakistan will make the transitionfrom military rule -- which began when Gen. Musharraf seized powerin a coup three years ago -- to civilian government, he said.
In the months before the poll, Musharrafaccorded himself the power to sack the Prime Minister and dissolvethe legislature.
Local rights groups were equally blunt intheir observation. Pakistan's independent Human Rights Commissionaccused the government officials of "blatantly coercing"voters into supporting pro-Musharraf candidates.
All these attacks have increased Musharraf'svulnerability. The politicians, who had so far been unsure abouthow to unseat Musharraf, now smell blood. They have already startedthe game, which precedes a change of government in Pakistan. BothBhutto and Sharif have refused to accept the results and demandedre-election.
If the military government refuses to doso, they have pledged to launch a campaign to oust it. Such pledgesnever translated into action before because political workersbelieved that the general was too strong to be brought down bystreet protests. But now that they see him as vulnerable, theywill be more receptive to such calls from their leaders.
Despite these alleged riggings, the electionresults were far from an outright victory for the President, however,though his friends in the PML (QA) have the most seats, 77 inthe 272-strong National Assembly. Bhutto's Pakistan People's Partywas second with 63 seats, followed by the MMA, a coalition ofsix Islamist religious parties, with 46.
Weakened internally, now Musharraf is evenmore dependent on U.S. support for his survival. The United Stateshas stood solidly behind him since Sept. 11, when the generaljoined the U.S.-led war on terror and provided bases to U.S. troopsdespite a strong opposition from Pakistani religious parties.
Even election results have not changed America'sattitude. At least not yet. As late as Friday, the U.S. StateDepartment described the election as "an important milestonein the transition to democracy."
State Department spokesman Richard Bouchersaid initial reports from U.S. and international observers foundthe polling-day processes generally "free and fair"and that the vote produced a "credible representation ofthe full range of opinion in Pakistan."
Refusing to condemn the emergence of a hard-lineIslamic group, the United Action Forum better known by its Urduacronym MMA, he said: "We think that Pakistani people andthe government have already demonstrated their strong oppositionto terrorism and extremism and their desire to move their societyin a moderate and stable direction."
However, Washington's attitude could changeif MMA forms governments in two key provinces, Northwest FrontierProvince and Baluchistan. In NWFP, it already has a majority andcan form a government on its own. In Baluchistan, it is the singlelargest party and can form a government with the help of othersmaller parties.
Both the provinces border Afghanistan whereU.S. forces are engaged in fighting al-Qaida and Taliban survivors.In NWFP, the U.S. forces are conducting search-and-arrest operationswith the help of Pakistani troops to catch al Qaida fugitiveshiding in the tribal areas. In Baluchistan, they use Pakistanibases for operations into Afghanistan.
During the election campaign, MMA had promisedto evict U.S. forces from Pakistan and stop the search operationsin the tribal areas. MMA leaders also had openly expressed supportfor al-Qaida and Taliban leaders and condemned the Pakistan governmentfor supporting the Americans against them.
If they try to translate these statementsinto policies, Washington will have no choice but ask Musharrafto use his presidential powers and sack the MMA governments inthe two provinces. Any hesitation on his behalf could force Washingtonto reconsider its support for the general and look for other alliesin Pakistan.
Both Bhutto and Sharif are willing to oblige.They head major, mainstream political parties with considerablesupport among the masses. Although Sharif's PML (N) won only 14seats in Thursday's elections, Bhutto impressed everybody by emergingas the second largest political force with 63 seats in the parliament.
Her success looks even more impressive giventhe fact that like Sharif, she was not allowed to return to Pakistanand campaign for her party. Like PML (N), her party was also subjectedto all sorts of restrictions aimed at eroding its support base.But the military government failed to subdue her supporters whoappear unfazed by the government's propaganda against Bhutto andher party.
Some political observers say that in tryingto prevent Bhutto and Sharif from winning the elections the governmentcreated a political vacuum, which was filled by MMA. This furtherstrengthens Bhutto's case for U.S. support.