CAYMAN NHC 5:30 AM UPDATE

Worse to come but National Hurricane Committee cautiously optimistic

Hurricane Ivan: NOAA Visible Image

Hurricane Ivan: NHC Three-day Forecast Track

Sunday, September 12, 2004

Based on the 4 a.m. advisory from the Miami National Hurricane Centre, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is expected to pass to the south west of Grand Cayman rather than directly over the island as was anticipated. If this new projected path holds, the closest point of approach would be about 20 miles southwest of Grand Cayman at around 7 a.m., and the island should get maximum winds of slightly less than originally forecast.

At 4 a.m. the centre of Hurricane Ivan was located 55 miles south south-east of Grand Cayman moving west north-west. The system’s forward motion has increased slightly to 9 mph and maximum sustained winds are now at 155 mph, which means Ivan has once again fallen to a strong category 4.

Estimates are that wind speeds on Grand Cayman are in excess of 100 mph with winds of about 75mph on the Sister Islands of Cayman Brac and Little Cayman.

Across Grand Cayman there are reports of damage, with trees and light poles downed, water ingress in homes and some roof failures.

The National Hurricane Committee continues to urge residents to remain indoors as, even if water is coming in, it is safer inside than outside in winds of this intensity. If roofs fail you should find the innermost room and cover with a mattress. While there are reports of flooding in some buildings, with electricity supplies off across all three islands, there is currently no danger of electrocution.

Hurricane force winds are expected to continue to increase throughout the morning before starting to decrease just before noon.

The National Hurricane Committee is being cautiously optimistic, but reminds everyone that, with winds in the system being currently 155 mph and fluctuations likely, catastrophic damage is still a definite possibility. Residents should therefore continue to exercise extreme caution and most importantly remain indoors.

Hurricane force winds will continue on Grand Cayman until around 6 p.m. They should subside on the Sister Islands earlier, with tropical storm force winds ending there by 6 p.m. also.

The next bulletin will be issued by noon unless circumstances dictate otherwise.

For further information, please call the Hurricane Hotline 946-3333.  

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